Weekly News 30.09–04.10.2019


This week the markets will be looking forward to getting a series of important news on the development of the U.S. economy—Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Services PMI. The UK will release data on the country’s economic growth. The RBA will make the interest rate decision. The Conservatives of Great Britain will hold a crisis conference, and Rome and Washington might discuss the issues of reducing Italy’s dependence on gas from Russia.

 

September 30th. UK GDP

The UK releases data on the country’s Q2 GDP at 08:30 GMT. Following the data of a preliminary report in August, which recorded a painful decline of 0.2%, the current forecast of 0.5% growth may seem overestimated.

Since the election of the new Prime Minister, the country has not moved forward with the Brexit problem. This circumstance continues to have an extremely negative impact on the UK’s economic performance.

 

September 1st. RBA decision. Khashoggi case: a new round

The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its interest rate decision at 04:30 GMT. The figure is 1% now. However, according to Reuters poll, the market expects a rate cut. The RBA chief Philip Lowe also hinted at rate cuts in his latest statements.


The audience will see a documentary film on the killing of columnist Jamal Khashoggi made by journalist Martin Smith. Last week, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said he got the responsibility for the incident.

Earlier, the U.S. authorities had ignored the public calls to disclose the CIA investigation into the Prince’s involvement in the tragedy. Instead, President Donald Trump repeated several times that Riyadh is a loyal ally of Washington.

 

October 2nd. ADP report. Conservative Party conference.

US releases its ADP report at 12:15 GMT. They expect an increase of 153,000 jobs.

Against the background of a steady decline in business activity, this forecast seems to be overestimated. This time, the market may have to react to a negative result.


The planned conference of the ruling Conservative Party of Great Britain will come to an end. Prime Minister Boris Johnson might make some statements.

Now the British public is concerned about the issue of holding a general election, which should help to break the Brexit stalemate. The new Prime Minister has failed to keep the process under control.

 

October 3rd. US Services PMI

The US releases an update on its ISM Services PMI. Since the indicator partially influences the country’s GDP, the market’s reaction can be quite strong. This time analysts expect a reading of 55.8 points.

Practice shows that the real value has recently exceeded expectations.


October 4th. Nonfarm Payrolls. Mike Pompeo in Italy.

The US traditionally releases its report on Nonfarm Payrolls at 15:30 GMT. Analysts expect the growth rate of no less than 162 thousand jobs. This forecast is close to the average data for recent months.


U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s trip to Italy will be over. Probably, the politicians of the two countries will discuss the issue of gas supply through the Trans Adriatic Pipeline. This project is an alternative to the traditional supply of raw materials from Russia.


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