How to start the week: analytics and forecasts — 08/10/2020

Fundamental analysis and forecasts for the future

American politicians have not been able to agree on a new economic stimulus package, but markets are not panicking. Perhaps something is ahead.


Economic calendar

14:00 UTC

There will be data on the number of open vacancies in the US labor market from JOLTS for June. The previous figure was 5 million. If the updated value turns out to be lower, the USD may decline.

Assets for trading: USD/CAD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD.


Must know

US President, Donald Trump, signed a ban on doing business with Chinese companies TikTok and WeChat. Relations between the countries continue to deteriorate ahead of a meeting following a bilateral trade agreement. Earlier, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged Apple and Google to remove Chinese applications from the AppStore and GooglePlay.

The Bank of England will not introduce a negative interest rate soon, and the Bank of India has announced that it has exhausted its resource for reducing the rate. Regulators from other countries can take a similar position.

Microsoft may buy a stake in TikTok, which will allow the social network to continue operations in the United States. However, if the parties do not close a deal by September 15th, TikTok will leave.

Russia may become the first country to officially register a drug for COVID-19. Also, last week, Novavax reported on the successes in creating a vaccine.


A fundamental view


One cannot ignore the massive sale of Amazon shares by its founder and CEO, Jeff Bezos. The total volume of transactions exceeds $3 billion. Does this mean that the potential for strengthening the company’s quotes has reached its ceiling?


A similar trade was made in early February 2020, which then led to a prolonged downtrend. Perhaps this time we will see something similar.


At the end of last week, it leaked that Microsoft began to consider the purchase of the TikTok business aimed not only at the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand but also in Europe and India. The news suggests that the scale of the deal could grow significantly.


Meanwhile, Microsoft shares are trading near historic highs again, but recent events may lead to a significant strengthening of positions.


Oil is reacting sharply to the deteriorating epidemiological situation with COVID-19 in several countries, as well as the inability of US senators to agree on economic incentives.


For this reason, oil prices have practically ignored the statistics on the decline in US reserves. In addition, the OPEC + countries may increase oil production this month.


The totality of the stated facts speaks of a probable drop in the quotations of black gold.



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