How to Start the Week: Analytics and Forecasts — 09.08.2021

Fundamental analysis and forecasts for the future

US job growth continues but fears of rising Delta variant numbers stoke fear.


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United Airlines Inc (UAL.O) on Friday became the latest company to require all its U.S.-based employees to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19. The airline said employees would need to show proof of vaccination, five weeks after the U.S. drug regulator fully approved any of Pfizer Inc, Moderna Inc, or Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine or by October 25, whichever was earlier.

U.S. job growth powered ahead and the unemployment rate fell in July amid demand for workers in the labor-intensive services sector, quashing fears of a hiring slowdown and suggesting the economy began the second half of the year with strong momentum. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday also showed strong wage gains, as employers competed for scarce workers and a drop in the unemployment rate to a 16-month low.

The Dow and the S&P 500 scaled record highs on Friday as shares in economy-linked sectors jumped following a solid rise in jobs in July, helping allay fears of the Delta variant impacting a nascent economic recovery. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 943,000 jobs last month, a Labor Department report showed, amid demand for workers in the labor-intensive services industry. Economists were expecting 870,000 job additions.

Canadian job gains slowed more than expected in July, data showed on Friday, with economists eyeing more growth to come but at a more gradual pace as employment continues to edge closer to pre-pandemic levels. The country added 94,000 jobs in July, missing analyst expectations of 177,500, though most of the gains were in full-time work. The unemployment rate fell to 7.5%, just off expectations of 7.4%, according to Statistics Canada data.

British house prices rose in July after falling in June as demand for bigger homes following pandemic lockdowns helped to soften the impact of a reduced tax break for buyers, mortgage lender Halifax said on Friday. House prices last month were 0.4% higher than in June when they fell by a monthly 0.6%, Halifax said. In annual terms, prices were 7.6% higher than in July 2020, the slowest rise since March.


Fundamental breakdown


Jeff Dean, Google’s AI chief, revealed that Google is developing a nimble, multi-purpose AI that can perform millions of tasks. Called Pathways, Google’s solution seeks to centralize disparate AI into one powerful, all-knowing algorithm.


The US government has said that Facebook is invoking “privacy … as a pretext” after the social media giant blocked misinformation researchers’ access to data. Facebook has repeatedly come under criticism due to its decision not to fact-check political advertising, despite CEO Mark Zuckerberg telling congress that it does not “allow misinformation in our ads”.


Chevron is profiting from the global economic and travel recovery. The company just reported $3.1 billion in net income and over $5 billion in free cash flow in the second quarter, almost entirely due to the snap back of demand for the fuel that moves people and goods around the world and creates the electricity the modern world depends on.
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