How to Start the Week: Analytics and Forecasts — 12.07.2021

Fundamental analysis and forecasts for the future

Tech giants and international conglomerates are in the crosshairs.


Must know

Finance ministers representing the G20 large economies back a deal setting a global floor for corporate tax rates and will push to resolve outstanding issues on it by October, the latest draft of a joint communique said.

European Central Bank policymakers debated a cut in stimulus at their June 10 meeting as the recovery picked up pace but eventually found “broad agreement” to maintain an elevated level of support, the accounts of the meeting showed on Friday. Facing rising borrowing costs amid a still-fledgling recovery, ECB policymakers concluded that an early retreat from the market could push yields higher and choke off growth as some key sectors were not yet on a solid enough footing, even if growth was now relatively quick.

Britain’s post-lockdown economic rebound slowed sharply in May despite relaxation of social-distancing rules, according to official data which also showed a hit to carmakers from the global shortage of microchips. Gross domestic product expanded by a monthly 0.8%, much faster than its typical pre-pandemic pace but down from April’s 2.0% surge. It was also a lot weaker than the median forecast of 1.5% in a Reuters poll of economists.

U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order on Friday that includes 72 initiatives he wants over a dozen agencies to undertake to promote competition throughout the U.S. economy, according to a fact sheet released by the White House. The order goes after corporate monopolies across a broad swath of industries such as technology, banking, and airlines and pushes government agencies to consider how their decisions will impact competition in an industry.

Britain is still importing more goods from outside the European Union than from the bloc’s single market which it left in January, but the difference is narrowing, Britain’s statistics office said on Friday. In May, imports of goods from non-EU countries totaled 19.362 billion pounds ($26.74 billion) while imports from the bloc totaled 18.513 billion pounds, the Office for National Statistics said.


Fundamental breakdown


Chinese officials are reportedly open to test flights for the Boeing 737 Max, a key step needed before the jet can return to service in one of the world’s biggest aviation markets.


Disney had a big weekend at the box office as the long-delayed “Black Widow” was set for its theatrical release worldwide on July 9.


Oil prices continued to swirl as traders tried to fathom how the clash inside the OPEC+ alliance will play out in global markets.

Early last week, U.S. crude soared to a six-year high near $77 a barrel on fears that OPEC’s failure to agree a production increase would leave markets desperately tight. But the gains soon fizzled on concern that the dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could splinter the entire alliance and undo its production cuts agreement.

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