How to Start the Week: Analytics and Forecasts — 14.06.2021

Fundamental analysis and forecasts for the future

Recovery is sweeping across the US and Germany, but some other countries are lagging behind.


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Oil prices rose on Friday to fresh multi-year highs and were set for their third weekly jump on expectations of a recovery in fuel demand in the United States, Europe, and China as rising vaccination rates lead to an easing of pandemic curbs. The International Energy Agency said on Friday, the world will need a lot more oil from OPEC+ as global demand is on track to return to pre-pandemic levels at the end of next year, just a few weeks after saying long-term oil production must decline to reduce emissions.

During the G7 Summit, President Joe Biden’s words of friendship and promise that “America is back” as he meets Western allies this week are a welcome relief. But they’re not enough, Biden faces lingering doubts about America’s reliability as a partner. Leaders from the Group of Seven advanced economies, NATO, and the European Union are worried about the pendulum of U.S. politics swinging yet again, and are looking for concrete action, not words after the shock of the Trump years.

German output is rebounding from its pandemic-induced slump and inflation could rise faster than currently expected, potentially affecting behavior in the economy, the German central bank said on Friday. The Bundesbank raised its growth and inflation forecasts for this year and the next, assuming that the coronavirus outbreak would be contained quickly and durably by the vaccination campaign and restrictions will soon be relaxed.

Britain’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic sped up in April as lockdown measures eased, with the fastest monthly growth since July leaving output a record 27.6% higher than a year earlier, when the virus was rampant and lockdown tightest. The figures on Friday from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed rapid growth in the services sector as non-essential retail and hospitality businesses opened their doors after months of closure and schools fully restarted.

The Bank of Japan is set to keep its money spigots wide open and may extend its pandemic-relief programs next week to support a fragile economic recovery, reinforcing expectations it will lag major counterparts in dialing back crisis-mode policies. While the extended state of emergency curbs to combat the coronavirus are weighing on consumption, BOJ policymakers have become cautiously optimistic on the outlook as exports remain solid, sources familiar with its thinking say.


Fundamental breakdown


Tesla launched the Model S Plaid, its fastest car yet, at an event last Thursday night to mark the first deliveries. Tesla stock rose.

The Model S Plaid has a 390-mile range and can accelerate from zero to 60 miles per hour in less than two seconds. It’s widely seen as Tesla’s attempt to fend off growing high-end competition from Porsche and Mercedes-Benz EVs.


Microsoft is looking to push the envelope of gaming by making titles more accessible through more devices including internet-connected TVs and other connected devices.


On Friday, McDonald’s reported a data breach in South Korea and Taiwan. The attackers were able to access only a couple of files: some containing personal data, before losing access.
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