Analytics

How to Start the Week: Analytics and Forecasts — 30.08.2021

Fundamental analysis and forecasts for the future


Rising COVID-19 cases have left much of the investing world less optimistic about the coming months.

 

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The German economy has been producing mixed signals of late with downbeat business and consumer morale figures suggesting growing concern about coronavirus infections and the impact of supply chain snags. Wednesday’s retail sales index for July may do little to brighten the picture with most analysts expecting a sharp fall from the bounce they got the month before – and some analysts even expecting a fall month-on-month.


U.S. payrolls for August, eurozone inflation, and Asia purchasing managers surveys – here’s a quick look ahead to next week’s top economic events and themes to be covered by Reuters bureaus. It’s all about jobs next week with nonfarm payrolls for August on tap on Friday morning ahead of the long weekend for the Labor Day holiday.


In Europe, the most eagerly anticipated news is the first estimate of eurozone inflation for August on Tuesday. Market expectations are for 2.7% year-on-year, above the July figure of 2.2% and moving ever further away from the ECB’s target of close to but not exceeding 2%. Still, it is unlikely that this alone will prompt a re-think of the current ECB view that price pressures are transitory and that stimulus policies can continue well into next year.


Britain has been suffering more than most from supply and labour shortages as COVID-19 and semiconductor-related factors are compounded by a post-Brexit exodus of skilled workers. The final and complete read-out of Markit/CIPS index of Purchase Managers’ views of the economy – both for manufacturing and services – in August may offer further clues to its overall health on Friday.


With almost two million new jobs created in the past two months, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data for August could prove key as investors assess just how close the Federal Reserve is to scaling back emergency stimulus. A Reuters poll forecast a 763,000 payrolls increase versus a 943,000 rise in July that gave the economy a powerful boost as it started the second half. But the Delta COVID-19 variant has cast a shadow over the growth outlook, July retail sales fell sharply and one survey showed consumer sentiment slid in early August to its lowest in over a decade.

 

Fundamental breakdown

Netflix

Netflix has released downloadable games for its subscribers in Poland as an initial test of concept. The entertainment service is looking to add video games to its list of entertainment, with no plans for ads, only expanding its offerings.

Disney

Black Widow brought in $125 million bolstering the argument for making streaming releases more prevalent.

Apple

Apple has made sweeping changes to the App Store rules as part of its response to a class-action lawsuit. The decision could allow developers to advertise other ways of paying for services that are offered through apps, something that has been banned on the iPhone until now.
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