How to Start the Week: Analytics and Forecasts — 31.05.2021

Fundamental analysis and forecasts for the future

US recovery is underway with a rocky road of inflation, political turmoil, and labor issues to come.


Must know

Exxon Mobil’s US oil refineries pump out far more lung-damaging soot than similarly-sized facilities operated by rivals, according to regulatory documents and a Reuters analysis of pollution test results. The Texas-based firm’s three largest refineries – two in Texas and one in Louisiana – are the nation’s top three emitters of small particulate matter, according to the analysis of the latest tests submitted to regulators by the nation’s 10 largest refineries.

In April, US job growth unexpectedly slowed, possibly because of shortages of workers and raw materials. Non-farm payrolls added a mere 266,000 jobs compared to predictions for more than 3-1/2 times that. Optimism over jobs has offset concerns about rising inflation and diminishing government financial support, lifting May U.S. consumer confidence to a 14-month high.

Inflation in the Euro bloc is approaching its 2% target – the fastest in years – thanks to higher spending and base effects stemming from the 2020 oil price crash. Strong data could spark excitement or fear that a new era of inflation is dawning. Although, others argue against the inflation-is-back narrative, stressing labor markets will take years to return to pre-crisis levels and that stimulus is still needed to secure the recovery.

The White House on Friday laid out President Joe Biden’s budget for trillions of dollars in spending on infrastructure, education, and other initiatives, but the plan is unlikely to sway Republicans who want to tamp down US government spending. Biden put price tags on his policy priorities in a roughly $6 trillion blueprint for the fiscal year that starts on Oct. 1.

US consumer prices accelerated in the year to April, with a measure of underlying inflation blowing past the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reflecting pent-up demand as the economy reopens, supply constraints, and technical factors. Concerns around the Fed’s response could push markets, though there has been little signaling of a change in course for the reserve.


Fundamental breakdown


Boeing Co said on Friday it was providing the U.S Federal Aviation Administration with more information on its undelivered 787 Dreamliners, after a report, it was again halting deliveries of the troubled planes.

Johnson & Johnson

The Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine has been authorized for emergency use by the U.K. medicines regulator, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA).

Goldman Sachs

GS has become the latest U.S. financial firm to receive approval for setting up a majority-owned joint venture (JV) in China. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission approved a Sino-foreign wealth management JV between Goldman Sachs Asset Management, L.P., and ICBC Wealth Management Co. Ltd. The estimated asset pool will surpass $70 trillion in the next 10 years.
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