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News, Trends, & Analytics 01.10.2019

The focus is on Hong Kong. Is the denouement close?

The U.K. ruling party is determined to leave on the 31st, The impeachment inquiry into Trump pushes forward, & Mainland China has prepared for intense protests.

 

News

In the most dramatic move yet, Beijing has quietly more than doubled its deployment of mainland security forces in Hong Kong, according to foreign envoys and security analysts, to prepare for a potential worsening of unrest in the global financial center. Affects the Hang Seng Index


Finance Minister Sajid Javid said on Monday The United Kingdom will leave the European Union on Oct. 31, hopefully, with a deal. Affects GBP


The House of Representatives impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump’s request that a foreign power investigate a domestic political rival is set to intensify this week with testimony due from witnesses concerning allegations made by a whistleblower within the U.S. intelligence community. Affects USD


A private survey released on Monday showed the manufacturing industries in the U.S. upper Midwest contracted further in September, prompted by a pullback in production and employment amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. Affects USD


As services appeared to offset the weakening industry, the unemployment rate in the eurozone dropped in August to its lowest in more than 11 years, official data showed on Monday, an encouraging sign for the region’s growth. Affect the EUR

 

Calendar

07:55 GMT

The German Manufacturing PMI for September will be released. The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. Affects EUR.


08:30 GMT

The British Manufacturing PMI for September will be published. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. Affects GBP.


09:00 GMT

The E.U.’s CPI (YoY) for September will be presented. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. Affects EUR.


12:30 GMT

The Canadian GDP (MoM) for July will be issued. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. Affects CAD.


14:00 GMT

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for September will be delivered. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. Affect USD.

 

Technical analysis

Hang Seng

October 1, China will celebrate the founding of the People’s Republic. Hong Kong protests on this day may gain momentum. Perhaps, for this reason, Beijing quietly dismissed the number of security forces on the border with the city.

Technical analysis indicates a high probability of a continuation of the trend down. On the daily timeframe, a “flag” continuation pattern has formed, which can lead quotes to the lower border of the channel.

EUR/AUD

We expect another spike in the upward momentum of the asset after contact with the lower end of the range.

Silver

The cost of silver is declining at an operational pace. Recall that earlier the upward support level was broken which stopped the bears.

Gold on this day in history

  • Since 2000 October 1st has been a trading day 13 times.
  • On 46% of those days, the asset ended with growth.
  • The maximum reinforcement range was 4.14%
  • The trend down was limited to 2.44%.

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