Analytics

News, Trends, & Analytics 03.03.2020

Will the Fed begin to cut rates?

Today, the focus is on the decline in business activity in China, the closure of a temporary hospital in Wuhan, as well as the Goldman Sachs forecast.

 

News

Turkey no longer stops Syrian refugees from getting to Europe. Affects EUR


Business activity in China fell to its global low. Affects Brent


Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will make an early key rate cut. Affects USD


The head of the Central Bank of France François Villeroy de Galhau believes that it is too early for the ECB to provide extra support for the economy. Affects EUR


Amid a slowdown in the spread of COVID-19 in China, one of the sixteen temporary hospitals for coronavirus-infected people was closed in Wuhan. Affects Brent

 

Calendar

09:30 GMT

The UK construction purchasing managers’ index will be published. A reading of 48.4 points is expected. A deviation upwards will positively affect the GBP.


10:00 GMT

The EU will update its consumer price index. Growth is projected at 1.2%. If the real data is higher, the EUR may strengthen.

 

Technical Analysis

Basic dollar index

Goldman Sachs economists believe the Fed will resume rate cuts. This decision can be made as soon as at the next meeting of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee in mid March.

The bankers’ forecast triggered the USD sell-off, and the Basic Dollar Index completely broke the upward support level, which is a bearish signal from the technical analysis point of view.

GBP / AUD

The currency pair will possibly drop. Firstly, the support level of 1.95500 was broken. Secondly, a report released yesterday recorded a decline in the UK manufacturing sector.

USD / TRY

The asset chart is forming a “triple top” reversal pattern. This is why traders may be inclined to short the USD.

 

GBP/AUD on this day in history

  • Since 2000, Mar. 3th has been a trading day 13 times.
  • On 23% of those days, the asset finished trading with growth.
  • The maximum strengthening range was 1.19%.
  • The downward trend was limited to 1.39%.
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