Analytics

News, Trends, & Analytics 03.09.2019

Turkey's GDP: better than forecast, but still in a recession

Argentina is battling to avoid a ninth default, Iran is looking to get help from the EU, & Turkey is not out of its recession yet.

 

News

Argentina’s international dollar bonds dropped to record lows, its financial stocks tumbled and risk premia shot up after President Mauricio Macri re-imposed capital controls on Sunday as the country battled to avoid its ninth sovereign default. Affects the ETF MSCI Brazil


Prime Minister Boris Johnson summoned ministers to a meeting on Monday, stoking speculation he could call an election if parliament defeats the government over a Brexit plan opponents fear could push the United Kingdom into a ruinous no-deal exit. Affects GBP


Iran said on Monday it would further reduce its commitments under a 2015 nuclear deal if European parties failed to shield Tehran’s economy from sanctions reimposed by the United States after Washington quit the accord last year. Affects Brent


The prolonged trade war between China and the United States has kept global factory activity largely in decline in August, business surveys showed, strengthening the case for policymakers to unleash fresh stimulus to fend off recession risks. Affects Gold


The Turkish economy contracted less than expected in the second quarter, 1.5% year-on-year (forecast at -2.0%), as it looks to shake off the effects of a recession brought on by last year’s currency crisis. Affects TRY

 

Calendar

04:30 GMT

The Australian – RBA Interest Rate Decision for Sep will be released. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Affects AUD


08:30 GMT

The British Construction PMI for August will be published. The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Construction Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the construction industry. Affects GBP


14:00 GMT

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for August. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. Affects USD

 

Technical analysis

USD/TRY

After Turkey entered into an open confrontation with the United States, the country’s economy has endured difficult times. For three consecutive quarters, the country’s GDP has been showing negative results. However, the rate of decline in the negative direction remains the hope that the 4th quarter will show growth.

Analysis of the situation by Fibonacci levels signals a possible decrease in the pair to 5.62.

EUR/AUD

A false breakdown at 1.63100 gives traders a bullish buy signal from the level.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price may decline due to the influence of a downward resistance level.

 

USD/TRY on this day in history

  • Since 2000 September 3rd has been a trading day 13 times.
  • On 42% of those days, the asset ended with growth.
  • The maximum reinforcement range was 1.84%.
  • The trend down was limited to 0.76%.
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