News, Trends & Analytics 04.12.2019

International trade prospects remain vague

The U.S. and Russia agree to talk arms, Rate cuts may happen in Turkey, & President Trump is willing to wait on negotiations.



President Donald Trump said a trade agreement with China might have to wait until after the U.S. presidential election in November 2020, denting hopes of a resolution to a dispute that has weighed on the world economy. Affects the S&P 500

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday Russia wanted to agree to deals on arms control and nuclear and that he was willing to bring China into those either now or later. Affects Gold

India is considering setting an experience threshold for pilots who fly Boeing’s 737 MAX planes, as it moves to ensure safety once the aircraft returns to service, a senior official of the air safety regulator told Reuters. Affects Boeing

Turkey’s annual consumer price index rose less than expected to 10.56% in November, increasing the chances of a sizeable rate cut by the central bank next week, even as inflation rebounded from a near three-year low. Affects TRY

Analysts at ABN AMRO notes that ECB President Christine Lagarde struck a dovish tone in remarks at a hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. Affects EUR



09:30 GMT

The British Composite PMI for November will be published. The Composite PMI Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in both sectors. Affects GBP.

13:15 GMT

The U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for November will be released. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. Affects USD.

15:00 GMT

The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for November. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI) report on Business, a composite index is calculated as an indicator of the overall economic condition for the non-manufacturing sector. Affects USD.

15:30 GMT

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will be announced. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. Affects USD.


Technical analysis


President Trump’s statements about the delay in the trade agreement with China until the 2020 presidential election looks like an attempt to justify the lack of any progress. We believe that the market should be alert.

The gold chart almost completed the formation of a double bottom pattern. Possible growth of quotations up to 1500.


Currency pair tested the upper border of the channel. A trend reversal is possible.

Hang Seng

The Hong Kong stock index chart overcame the upward support level, which could trigger continued sales. Note that the main stock exchanges finished the day with a decline. This could indicate the beginning of a global market correction.


NZD/USD on this day in history

  • Since 2000, December 4 has been a trading day 14 times.
  • On 43% of those days, the asset ended with growth.
  • The maximum reinforcement range was 1.8%
  • The trend down was limited to 0.83%.
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