Analytics

News, Trends, & Analytics 05.09.2019

Will the Fed cut rates?

Oil responded positively to news from China, Russia will be buying more foreign currencies, & Fed bankers have differing opinions on the next steps.

 

News

Boosted by a wider market pickup on positive news from China’s services sector, Oil prices rose on Wednesday, after three days of losses due to fears about a weakening global economy. Affects Brent


European policymakers introduced some doubt over the scale of a European Central Bank stimulus package expected next week, while investors sold the dollar for riskier currencies. Affects EUR


Iranian state television reported on Wednesday, Iran will free seven crew members of the detained British-flagged tanker Stena Impero. Affects Brent


U.S. central bankers disagree on how to wield the Fed’s precious firepower, which will be discussed in their next meeting. Affects USD


Between Sept. 6 and Oct. 4, Russia’s finance ministry said on Wednesday it would buy 8.9 billion roubles ($134.86 million) worth of foreign currency a day, down from 11.2 billion roubles per day during its last run of purchases. Affects RUB

 

Calendar

12:15 GMT

The U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for Aug will be published. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. Affects USD.


14:00 GMT

The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for August will be released. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI) report on Business, a composite index is calculated as an indicator of the overall economic condition for the non-manufacturing sector. Affects USD.


15:00 GMT

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will be announced. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. Affects Brent.

 

Technical analysis

EUR/USD

The market appreciates the chances of lowering the Fed key rate at the September meeting. For this reason, the US dollar may be under pressure.

The asset can move significantly higher, as quotes should test the upper boundary of the channel.

DAX

The German stock market shows strength. The chart is actively playing back the inverted Head and Shoulders pattern.

AUD/CAD

The asset has reached a resistance level of 0.90500. A trend reversal is likely.

 

AUD/CAD on this day in history

  • Since 2000 September 5th has been a trading day 15 times.
  • On 53% of those days, the asset ended with growth.
  • The maximum reinforcement range was 0.6%.
  • The trend down was limited to 0.8%.
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