News, Trends, & Analytics 11.02.2020

Is Merkel’s course tilted?

Today, the focus is on currency exchange limits in Turkey, the number of patients with coronavirus in the PRC has exceeded 40 thousand, as well as the decision of Kramp-Karrenbauer to leave the ambitions of the leader of Germany.



Merkel’s successor will not run for German Chancellor. Affects EUR

The number of patients with coronavirus in China has exceeded 40,000. Affects Brent

Currency exchange limits in Turkey weakened the position of the lira. Affects TRY

January inflation in China determined forecasts (5.4% against the forecast of 4.9%). Affects AUD

Donald Trump has made a number of budget proposals for 2021. Affects USD



09:30 GMT

A preliminary report on the UK’s GDP growth rates for the IV quarter of 2019 will be published. If real data exceeds 0.4%, GBP will receive an upward momentum.

14:00 GMT

ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech. The event may cause an increase in EUR volatility, as traders will wait for economic forecasts.

15:00 GMT

A speech will be made by the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. Such events lead to increased volatility of currency pairs with USD.


Technical Analysis


This key currency pair stepped up its decline after the head of the German Christian Democrats abandoned the idea of running for president of Germany. Now Merkel’s party must choose a new chapter who will compete for the post of chancellor. This is probably the reason the euro began to weaken.

The fall of the currency pair may continue to 1.08750, where the global minimum of the asset is located.


The Central Bank of Turkey has decided to reduce the limits on the operations of local banks with foreign currencies. This decision caused a sharp increase in volatility and a breakdown of the psychological level of 6.0000. According to Fibonacci retracement, the uptrend may continue up to 6.1100.

FTSE 100

The British stock index may complete the formation of the right shoulder of the inverted figure “head and shoulders”, so quotes can strengthen to 7516.


USD/TRY on this day in history

  • Since 2000, Feb. 11th has been a trading day 14 times.
  • On 42% of those days, the asset finished trading with growth.
  • The maximum strengthening range was 0.58%.
  • The downward trend was limited to 1.82%.
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