News, Trends, & Analytics 15.08.2019

The signs of recession are mounting

Import prices rose in the U.S., China’s output growth has really slowed, & The strongest economy in Europe sees a decline in exports.



Though U.S. import prices unexpectedly rose in July, the underlying trend continued to be weak, pointing to subdued imported inflation pressures. Affects USD

Amplified by tariff conflicts and fallout from Brexit, slumping exports sent Germany’s economy into reverse in the second quarter, with prospects of an early recovery slim as its manufacturers struggle at the sharp end of a global slowdown. Affects EUR

On Wednesday, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany wants Britain to maintain a close partnership with the European Union after its divorce from the bloc. Affects GBP

Due in part to industrial output growth cooling to a more than 17-year low, China’s economy stumbled more sharply than expected in July, as the intensifying U.S. trade war took a heavier toll on businesses and consumers. Affects AUD

France’s unemployment rate fell back during the second quarter to reach its lowest level since the end of 2008, in the face of a slowing economy and anti-government protests. Affects EUR



12:30 GMT

The U.S. Core Retail Sales (MoM) for July will be released. Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. Affects USD.


Technical analysis


Weak GDP data from Germany increased the level of negativity in the market. For the first time since the 3rd quarter of 2018, the report recorded a decrease. However, the problems of Germany perfectly reflect the real state of affairs in the world.

Against this backdrop, the price of oil began to fall again. Brent may drop to around 56.00 over the next days.

Dow Jones

The level of 8.95 may resist against the further growth of this currency pair.


The asset has been devoid of signals for a while. The graph has formed an inverted Head and Shoulders” model indicating a uptrend, that may still be stopped by its resistance level.


USD/TRY on this day in history

  • Since 2000 August 15th has been a trading day 15 times.
  • On 42% of those days, the asset ended with growth.
  • The maximum reinforcement range was 2.74%.
  • The trend down was limited to 5.73%.
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