News, Trends, & Analytics 15.10.2020

Is the recession over?

Today the focus is on the drop in oil refining volumes, the speech by Xi Jinping, as well as the statements of the Vice President of the US Federal Reserve, Richard Clarida.



12:30 UTC

The report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be published. The indicator is forecast to fall to 825 thousand. If the real data turns out to be higher, the USD may decline.

Assets to trade: USD/CHF, USD/CAD

15:00 UTC

The report on changes in US crude oil reserves will be published. A decrease of 3.387 million barrels is expected. If the fall in inventories turns out to be more widespread, Brent will receive a positive impetus.

Assets to trade: Brent

22:45 UTC

New Zealand CPI for Q3 will be published. A decrease of 0.5% is projected. If the real data is higher. NZD will receive a positive driver.

Assets for trading: NZD/USD, NZ/CAD



The International Energy Agency announced a decrease in the volume of world oil refining. Affects Brent

Xi Jinping said Hong Kong could be more integrated with mainland China. Affects Hang Seng

Tesla shareholder Ron Baron expects the company’s turnover to reach $2 billion. Affects Tesla

Fed’s Richard Clarida predicts that it may take 1 year for the US economy to recover to pre-crisis levels. Affects USD

There has been progress in trade talks between the EU and the UK, sources said. Affects GBP


Technical Analysis

Basic dollar index

US Federal Reserve Vice President Richard Clarida said the American economy will take about a year to return to pre-pandemic levels. Nevertheless, the market heard positive comments in Clarida’s words. For example, that the recession may be over.

A technical analysis of the dollar index chart shows that the currency may resume growth. Support is provided by one of the Fibonacci levels. It is also worth noting that the quotes have broken through the upper border of the channel. The target of the bullish trend is the level of 94.40.


The chart of the currency pair has formed a similarity to a “triple bottom” pattern, which indicates a likely continuation of the upward trend.


After an unsuccessful breakout of the downtrend line, the asset’s quotes began to decline rapidly. This dynamic could last down to 104.250.


USD/JPY on this day in history

  • Since 2000, October 15th has been a trading day 13 times.
  • On 61% of those days, the asset finished trading with growth.
  • The maximum strengthening range was 1.57%.
  • The downward trend was limited to 2.04%.
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