Analytics

News, Trends, Analytics 15.11.2019

Germany revises its GDP forecast

Today, market participants will focus on US inflation, statements made by the ECB Vice President and a preliminary estimate of German GDP.

 

News

U.S. producer price index increased. Affects USD


The EU GDP growth forecast has been revised up thanks to a positive assessment of German GDP. Affects EUR


ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos assessed the risk of the EU economy falling into recession as “very low”. Affects EUR


China lifted restrictions on U.S. poultry imports. Affects S&P500


The first public hearing of the impeachment inquiry of the president was held in the U.S. Affects USD

 

Calendar

10:00 GMT

The EU will update the consumer price index. Analysts expect a result of 0.7%. A lower reading will have a negative impact on the EUR.


13:30 GMT

The US releases its core retail sales index. Analysts expect the sales to increase by 0.4%. If the result is lower, the USD may decline.


Technical analysis

EUR/USD

Germany released a preliminary estimate of its Q3 GDP yesterday. Instead of falling by 0.1%, the indicator increased by 0.1%. We believe that this is the first signal of the end of recession in Germany. The final report is to be published next week.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD is trading above the Fibonacci level. A decrease of quotes to 1.09860 will indicate a resumption of the downtrend.

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/EW1Htv3oxUiZ38-C2tr3KviZZzNA1djq7wIcooG-FWMn6Ds3SHhbQxH1tFwirpGYfGwSEZu7BN51_de7AGbwx6fIjtl62JxP5K1gakjdhGjs0IzRqGOILGWXkGOMhaajOMKTG1HS

EUR/JPY

The asset continues to decline due to the lack of support levels. The decline target is the lower limit of the ascending channel.

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/2NouxkWEVh1w1FqxkqstEA153mVWkrbtVF9T0vBHSh9-KkMTlSfxVepqS1zCNnQs5IWSfwISLSxQe3Apu1iTfGDGI1yHqqXPlIZ2j4I1wdkZZM1VEY8sMXr4N1-WU6n-SSgDSiSF

Brent

The asset might go up to 63.50. First of all, China made a move and lifted a ban on US poultry meat imports. Secondly, the market is trading the statement made by OPEC Secretary General Barkindo that there might be downward revisions of supply next year.

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/wx1DyLv_vu2tF5Y0QG4iuQwRc8j7ayUfIQTyVpbkVryw4uDXc72HWUq7gfmjf26AWavyIMVGP1mToD_G8HCyvyMPtYlnAAL78YKzhuOX2hkI859UcCK9dlITV53zF8Lf8bZuCQ-8

 

EUR/JPY on this day in history

  • Since 2000, November 15 has been a trading day 14 times.
  • On 57% of those days, the asset ended with growth.
  • The maximum reinforcement range was 1.52%
  • The trend down was limited to 1.16%.
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