News, Trends, & Analytics 18.06.2021

US Jobless Claims Exceed Expectations

Today the focus is on the Japanese Monetary Policy Statement and the British Monthly Retail Sales.



3:00 UTC

The Japanese Interest Rate and Monetary Policy will be announced. Forecast: -0.1%. If the BOJ shares an upbeat economic outlook in Japan, the JPY may receive a boost.

Assets to trade: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

6:00 UTC

The British Monthly Core Retail sales will be released. Forecast: 1.5%. If the actual figure beats the market expectation, the GBP may be pushed into the upside.

Assets to trade: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY



Australia recently released upbeat jobs data. The country’s Employment Change was 115.2K against the expectation of 30.5K, and the Unemployment Rate was 5.1% vs the forecast of 5.5%. Affects AUD

During its Monetary Policy report, the US Fed shared a possibility of a sooner rate hike than what was planned before. The US stock market was pressured by this announcement. Affects S&P 500

The US Monthly Retail Sales announced this week as -1.3% resulted in being lower than the expected -0.6%. Observers see it as a shift into the online sphere of consumer activity rather than an overall underperformance as Industrial Production of 0.8% beat the forecast of 0.6%. Affects USD

The US Crude Oil inventories unexpectedly dropped -7.4M against the expectation of -2.1M indicating that the recovering economy demands more oil. Affects Brent


Technical Analysis


The US economic recovery that goes hand in hand with the global trend pushes the US Fed to mull over sooner rate increases than what it was considering earlier. Indeed, inflation is going overboard, and many industries are already at pre-virus levels. These optimistic projections push investors to start looking at riskier assets. Hence, gold is seeing lower demand and is losing value.

After a rise to the heights of $1900, the gold price is back down to the one-month lows of 1800. If the recovery keeps the pace, it will be hard for the gold price to stay above that mark.


The oil price is likely to cross $74 as it already left the episode of a local downward correction and is staying within a steady upward trajectory.

S&P 500

The primary US stock market index is down below the 100-EMA (dark orange) after the US Fed’s comments. Therefore, it will be now trying to recover the losses breaking through the resistance of the EMA’s above.

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