Analytics

News, Trends, & Analytics 27.11.2019

Pay attention to Turkey

Greece is back in a big way, China is unhappy with US support, & Russia and Turkey talk missiles.

 

News

The European Commission said on Tuesday it put Greece back on the list of “marketable risk” countries for short-term export credit insurance as of 1 January 2020. Affects EUR


China will keep its economic growth within a reasonable range for the next five years, Premier Li Keqiang said, though the external environment may get more complicated, with more uncertainties and challenges. Affects the Hang Seng Index


Russia hopes to seal a deal to supply Turkey with more S-400 missile systems in the first half of next year, said the head of Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport was cited on Tuesday. Affects TRY


President Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday called on Turks to “leave the dollar” and convert their foreign currencies to Turkish lira in order to boost the currency and show patriotism. Affects TRY


China’s foreign ministry summoned U.S. Ambassador Terry Branstad on Monday to protest against the passing in the U.S. Congress of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, saying it amounted to interference in an internal Chinese matter. Affects Gold

 

Calendar

13:30 GMT

The U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) for October will be released. Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Affects USD.


13:30 GMT

The U.S. GDP (QoQ) for Q3 will be published. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. Affects USD.


15:00 GMT

The U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) for Oct will come out. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Report measures the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction. Affects USD.


15:30 GMT

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will be announced. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. Affects Brent.

 

Technical analysis

USD/TRY

A Russian official in charge of arms exports said that Turkey could increase the volume of purchases of missile systems. The news caused concern in the United States. The situation may worsen relations between Ankara and Washington, which will affect the course of the Turkish lira. At the same time, Turkish President Erdogan called on citizens to show patriotism and focus on their local currency.

Consider one of the long-term scenarios for the development of the situation around USD / TRY. The asset has been at relative lows for a long time, which only fuels the bulls appetite for decisive action. It is likely that the Lira will nevertheless yield to the American currency and quotes will begin to move towards the strategic goal at the level of 6.00.

GBP/AUD

The currency pair has shown the figure Triple Top. High probability of quotes reduction.

Silver

The dynamics of the silver chart hinted at the appearance of the continuation of the Flag trend. There could be a possible breakthrough quotes down.

 

GBP/AUD on this day in history

  • Since 2000, November 27 has been a trading day 14 times.
  • On 57% of those days, the asset ended with growth.
  • The maximum reinforcement range was 0.99%
  • The trend down was limited to 0.94%.
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