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News, Trends, & Analytics 31.07.2019

British Prime Minister to lead the country out of the EU "no matter what"

All eyes on the Fed, China may try to wait out President Trump, & Turkey may have a better than expected 2019.

 

News

The Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on Wednesday for the first time in a decade could due to slower economic growth and benign inflation as U.S. consumer spending and prices rose moderately in June. Affects USD


While acknowledging that the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio will be higher than the government’s previous forecast, Finance Minister Berat Albayrak said on Tuesday that he expected Turkey to post positive growth near its targets in 2019. Affects TRY


Britain will be leaving the European Union “no matter what” on Oct. 31, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar on Tuesday, stressing that the so-called Irish backstop had to be removed from any exit deal. Affects GBP


U.S. President Trump warned China, if he wins re-election in the November 2020 U.S. presidential contest, the outcome could be no agreement or a worse one, in response to rumors Beijing is waiting out his first term in office to finalize any trade deal. Affect the S&P500


The United States may be planning to pull out of the Comprehensive nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) by blaming Russian non-compliance as a pretext, a Russian diplomat told the Conference on Disarmament, on Tuesday. Affect the RUB

 

Calendar

09:00 GMT

The European CPI (YoY) for July will be released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. Affects the EUR.


12:15 GMT

The U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for July Will be published. A measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. Affects USD.


12:30 GMT

The Canadian GDP (MoM) for May will be reported. Measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. Affects CAD.


14:30 GMT

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will be announced. This measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. Affects Brent.


18:00 GMT

U.S.Fed Interest Rate Decision will be delivered. A report of the members’ votes on where to set the rate. Affect USD.


18:30 GMT

U.S. FOMC Press Conference will happen. Federal Open Market Committee will convene to discuss the current economic climate. Affects USD.

 

Technical analysis

EUR/GBP

Boris Johnson, at a meeting with Irish politicians, said that he would lead Britain out of the rest of the EU despite everything. These statements were extremely poorly received, the British currency fell as well as the stock index FTSE 100.

ETF MSCI Brazil

The asset has crashed through its bullish trend. Look to capitalize on the fall.

Boeing

Boeing shares may continue to trend down after the company submitted a bad quarterly report. And will also not be helped by the Double Top figure.

 

EUR/GBP on this day in history

  • Since 2000 July 31th has been a trading day 12 times.
  • On 57% of those days, the asset ended with growth.
  • The maximum reinforcement range was 3.37%.
  • The trend down was limited to 0.04%.

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