The European Union and Australia release their data on Q3 GDP this week. China reports on its manufacturing PMI. The RBA releases its interest rate decision, and the OPEC+ alliance is to release its decision on the volume of oil production. The U.S. publishes the latest data on Nonfarm Payrolls. The impeachment inquiry into the U.S. leader enters a new phase.
December 2. China’s PMI. Wine and “digital tax”
The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index comes in at 01:45 GMT. It is going to show us the reaction of Chinese producers to the situation in the global economy and geopolitics. If the result is equal to 51.4 points or higher, China will prove the its system’s stability once again.
The U.S. may announce a retaliation against France’s “digital tax” that targets big tech corporations. The U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was studying the issue. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase tariffs on French wines.
December 3. The RBA’s interest rate
At 03:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases its interest rate decision. The bank has recently hinted at the possibility of another rate cut. On November 26, RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe set a target of 0.25%. The index is at the level of 0.75% now.
We believe that there will be at least one cut by the end of the year. The Australian currency, which has lost more than 2% of its value since early November, also hints at a further rate reduction.
December 4. Australia’s GDP. Impeachment hearings
Australia releases its Q3 GDP at 00:30 GMT. The economy is expected to grow by 0.5%.
Against the backdrop of a lack of negative factors for the last quarter, as well as reduced risk of a trade war between the U.S. and China, the forecast seems realistic. In addition, the Australian economy already demonstrated similar results in the second quarter.
The U.S. Senate Judicial Committee will consider the grounds for the removal (impeachment) of President Donald Trump. The hearing is scheduled for 15:00 GMT. Based on the discussion, the case for impeachment will either be referred to the House of Representatives or dismissed.
December 5. EU GDP. OPEC+ meeting
At 10:00 GMT, the euro area will announce its preliminary data on Q3 GDP. Analysts expect an increase of 0.2%. The slowdown in the region’s economy was caused by recession in Germany and Italy. In the current situation it will be the best scenario is the reading comes in line with the forecast.
OPEC+ will discuss the possibility of another extension of the agreement on limitation o of oil production in Vienna. OPEC and its allies are expcted to extend the output cuts for a standard period of 6 months due to the risk of a decline in oil prices against the backdrop of no progress in trade relations between China and the United States.
December 6. Nonfarm Payrolls. Iran nuclear deal talks.
At 13:30 GMT, the U.S. releases a report on Nonfarm Payrolls. Analysts expect the result of 183 thousand. No reading has reached this value for the last four months. However, the Fed’s rate cut in September could have had a stimulating effect on the result.
A meeting of the Joint Commission on the Iranian Nuclear Deal will be held in Vienna. Officials from China, France, Russia, Germany, Great Britain, and Iran will take part in the meeting. Two weeks earlier, the Islamic Republic of Iran made another step towards abandoning the previous agreements by conducting preparatory work at one of the country’s nuclear facilities.