Weekly News 14.10–18.10.2019

Introducing the most complete review of the upcoming week from analysts Olymp Trade

This week, an important inflation indicator for the European economy, the CPI index, will be published. China is to publish data regarding its GDP trend for the third quarter. Analysts are expecting changes in Singapore’s monetary policy. The trade war between America and China could reach a new level. One more attempt to define the terms for Brexit will be undertaken at a summit of EU leaders.


October 14. A holiday in Japan and Canada. Singapore’s monetary policy

October 14 is an official holiday in Japan and Canada. The Land of the Rising Sun is marking Health and Sports Day, while Canada will be celebrating Thanksgiving.

At 00:00 GMT Singapore’s GDP data for the third quarter will be published. According to a survey of 11 experts that was conducted by Reuters, once the statistics have been published, an announcement regarding the relaxation of the country’s monetary policy can be expected.

In addition, analysts are suggesting that in the run-up to the elections that have been planned for next year, the city-state’s government will be presenting a “generous” budget proposal. If all of these predictions prove true, it is likely that we will see a weakening in the Singapore dollar.


October 15. Data from the RBA. A new round of trade wars?

At 00:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia will be publishing the minutes from its last meeting regarding monetary policy. It should be recalled that during the previous event, the regulator once again reduced the key rate, triggering a sharp depreciation in the Australian currency.

Traders, however, remain interested in the position of members of the RBA’s Board of Governors, whose assessments should be contained in the minutes.

US President Donald Trump could raise the tax on a whole range of Chinese goods on October 15, in the event of a deadlock in negotiations with the PRC. It should be recalled that a further round of high-level trade negotiations began in Washington on October 10.


October 16. The EU’s CPI. The trial of the leaders of Catalonia

At 09:00 GMT, data regarding the EU’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. On this occasion, experts are predicting a CPI at a level of 0.9%, on the basis of preliminary figures. A scenario whereby the index falls further remains relevant, however.

Low inflation is continuing to be a serious problem for Europe. The indicator thereof has been decreasing for almost an entire year.

Spain’s Supreme Court is to pronounce the sentences on the 12 leaders of Catalonia who have been accused of separatism. Several of them are facing 25 years in prison.

Authorities are well aware, however, that a harsh punishment for their attempt to separate the region from Spain could result in an upsurge of protests. In addition, it would risk causing an increase in radical groups.


October 17. The Australian labor market. A summit of EU leaders

At 00:30 GMT, data regarding Australia’s labor market will be published. Experts are primarily interested in the level of unemployment. They are expecting the figures to show an increase of 10,000. Against a background of the previous figure of 34,700, the predicted figure is very conservative.

According to data since the start of 2018, roughly 24,000 people have found jobs every month in the country.

On October 17-18, an EU summit, which the heads of leading member states will be attending, will be taking place. The focus will be on the proposals for Brexit that have been prepared by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s team.

A number of European officials have already expressed skepticism regarding the proposed amendments. If London and Brussels do not manage to negotiate and agree upon the conditions for the time limit of this cooperation, Johnson will be forced to request another postponement of Britain’s exit from the EU.


October 18. China’s GDP. American tariffs on European goods

At 02:00 GMT, China will be publishing a report regarding the rate of growth of GDP in the third quarter of this year. In the second quarter, the indicator stood at 6.2%. Now, however, due to the friction in trade relations with the USA, a figure of 6.1% is being predicted. We believe that these target reference points can be considered well-founded.

Increased taxes on some European goods that are imported by the USA will come into effect today. The blow was struck with the WTO’s approval, which confirmed the excessive support for the aerospace industry in EU countries. Experts are predicting a reduction in the importation of European cheeses to the USA by 30%, the equivalent of $1.5 billion.

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