This week traders will be focused on important indicators of the US economy: growth rate of US GDP, existing home sales, crude oil reserves and US national debt limit. The central banks of the European Union and Turkey will release their interest rate decisions. The trade war between Japan and South Korea may reach a new level.
New Investments in Bitcoin
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) launches Bitcoin Futures trading following the example of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).
Note that CBOE stopped trading Bitcoin in the middle of June due to low demand. Perhaps, the launch of trading on ICE will lead to the growth of the cryptocurrencies’ volatility.
US Existing Home Sales. Japan-Korea Disputes
At 14:00 GMT, US releases a report on existing home sales in June. Experts expect a figure of 5.35 million houses. However, this level has been exceeded only once since the beginning of the year.
Japan may exclude South Korea from the “white list” of trade partners, which have easier access to strategic technologies of the Land of the Rising Sun. This can happen right at the World Trade Organization meeting.
According to the media, South Korea has been inadequately managing sensitive items imported from Japan, with some of them ending up in other countries.
US Crude Oil Inventories. US Special Counsel before the House or Representatives
At 14:30 GMT, US releases its report on crude oil reserves. The indicator has been declining for the last five weeks, which contributed to rising price of black gold.
An increase in US oil reserves may have an extremely negative impact on the trading dynamics.
Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is to testify before members of two Committees of the U.S. House of Representatives. He will be questioned about Russia’s interference in the recent presidential election. Democrats continue to try to find evidence of a connection between President Trump’s family and the Kremlin.
A recent investigation led by Robert Mueller found no evidence of Donald Trump’s conspiracy with Moscow.
Meetings of Central Banks of Europe and Turkey
The Central Bank of Europe releases its interest rate decision at 11:45 GMT. The regulator is not expected to change its policy, but the trading volatility will increase. Investors still hope to get hints at a cut.
On July 25, the Central Bank of Turkey holds a monetary policy meeting. It will be held by the new governor Murat Uysal. Analysts expect the interest rate to be cut.
The new head of the authority has been recently appointed. President Recep Erdoğan did not approve of the policy of his predecessor, Murat Chetinkaya.
At 12:30 GMT, US reports on the country’s Q2 GDP. Analysts have agreed on the most modest forecast since January 2017. In their opinion, the result will be just 1.9%.
The US Congress should consider raising the national debt ceiling again. That is what the US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin requested Congress to do. This is the last working day of the lower house of Congress before the six-week vacation.
The concern of the Treasury secretary is quite understandable—the government could run out of money by early September. The last increase in the ceiling of the state debt load took place in February 2019. The limit on the US borrowing exceeded $22 trillion limit for the first time, amounting to $22,012 trillion.