Several key indicators of the US economy come out this week. The market is waiting for the Fed decision on the interest rate, the July data on Nonfarm Payrolls, as well as the manufacturing PMI and the latest Conference Board index. US-China trade talks are expected to resume. The era of the INF treaty is almost over.
A new round of the US-China talks
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are to resume trade negotiations between the PRC and the US in Shanghai.
We remind you that the discussion of a bilateral trade agreement between the countries was halted in May due to seemingly irreconcilable issues.
US Conference Board index
At 17:00 GMT, the US will update data on the Conference Board consumer confidence index. Experts predict a reading of 124.5 points. If it comes out below 121.5, this will be the third reduction in a row. In this case, there is a high probability of panic among investors.
The Fed decision
At 18:00 GMT, the Fed releases its decision on the interest rate. The figure is 2.5% now, but the latest calls of the American leader to lower the rate may resonate with the state of mind of the Fed’s governing board.
As a result, we can get a rate cut to 2.25%, which will cause a decline in the US currency and an increase in the US stock market.
US manufacturing PMI
At 14:00 GMT, the US releases the data July on the ISM manufacturing PMI. Analyst expect a reading of 52.7 points. However, the last two reports showed lower performance than expected.
If the result does not exceed 51.7, it will be the fourth consecutive decline. This will create preconditions for increasing negative sentiment on US exchanges.
Confrontation or negotiation. Nonfarm Payrolls
The United States officially withdraws from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia, which existed for more than 20 years. On the one hand, this may lead to increased tension between the two countries. On the other hand, this is a reason to start negotiations.
At 12:30 GMT, the US releases its traditional monthly report on the number of workers outside the agricultural sector—Nonfarm Payrolls. Experts expect a rather modest result of 160 thousand. The market’s reaction to this event is most likely to be positive.