How to Start the Week: Analytics and Forecasts — 06.09.2021

Fundamental analysis and forecasts for the future

Is the summer of “normal” over? What will this COVID fall look like.


Must know

The promise of a “normal” US economy this summer, which kicked off with the June revival of restaurants, air travel, and baseball games, is transforming into an uncertain fall of rising health and economic risks. Labor Day weekend, the traditional end of the US summer season, was pegged as the moment when the economy would finally transition out of the pandemic slump, with private-sector jobs and wages replacing unemployment benefits. Instead, the summer is closing with rising COVID-19 case counts, hospitals bulging with patients, and dark predictions.

Japan’s economy likely grew more than initially reported in the second quarter thanks to stronger business spending, a Reuters poll showed, though a resurgence of coronavirus infections is seen weighing on growth going forward. Revised gross domestic product (GDP) data is expected to show Japan’s economy grew an annualized 1.6% in April-June, more than a preliminary reading of 1.3% growth.

Britain’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic lost more momentum last month than originally estimated as staff shortages and supply chain issues weighed on companies in the country’s huge services sector, a survey showed on Friday. The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 55.0 in August, revised lower from a preliminary “flash” reading of 55.5, and down sharply from 59.6 in July.

There is less upside for Canada’s dollar over the coming year, according to analysts who are weighing the effect of a surprise contraction in the economy and signs of a cooler housing market on the Bank of Canada’s policy outlook, a Reuters poll showed. With about 68% of its population fully vaccinated against COVID-19, Canada’s economy could be positioned better than some others to cope with a fourth wave of the virus. Still, the economy surprisingly shrank in the second quarter, when lockdowns were in place, and likely had far less momentum than had been expected heading into the summer, data showed on Tuesday.

US job growth slowed more than expected in August amid a softening in demand for services and persistent worker shortages as COVID-19 infections soared, but the pace was enough to sustain the economic expansion. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 235,000 jobs last month after surging 1.053 million in July, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% from 5.4% in July. It has, however, been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being “employed but absent from work.”


Fundamental breakdown

Exxon Mobil

Exxon Mobil Corp. is tapping the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to revive gasoline production in Louisiana after Hurricane Ida left much of the devastated state’s refining and oil production offline.


Apple will ease payment rules for certain apps like Netflix and Spotify, in a concession that will allow some media platforms to bypass fees the tech giant collects on in-app purchases.


Alibaba stock tumbled in Hong Kong trading, with the company’s US-listed shares saw similar declines, as the Chinese internet giant confirmed Friday a large donation to social and economic programs in its home country.
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