Analytics

How to Start the Week: Analytics and Forecasts — 22.03.2021

Fundamental analysis and forecasts for the future


The US is leading the way on COVID-19 economic recovery.

 

Must know

As the European Union looks forward to a fresh start with the United States under a new president, it is riddled with doubts over another transatlantic relationship. A trade pact struck in 2019 with the Mercosur bloc of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay after two decades of talks promised to be the EU’s largest deal, with the removal of 4 billion euros ($4.8 billion) of import tariffs on its products.


Britain has implemented record-breaking borrowing to pay for the coronavirus crisis, but it could be a little lower than forecast. Data published on Friday showed the budget deficit grew by less than expected in the first two months of 2021. Borrowing 19.1 billion pounds ($26.6 billion) last month, the government set a record for February, but it was less than the 21.0 billion pounds forecast in a Reuters poll.


The gap in recovery between the US and Europe is widening and picking up pace. Struggling to get its vaccine campaign and economic recovery plan in gear, Europe can only watch with envy the stratospheric growth path projected for the stimulus-fueled U.S. economy. However, much of the difference is accredited to welfare programs across the bloc that give better protections to businesses and workers.


The Bank of Japan slightly loosened its grip on long-term interest rates on Friday and laid the groundwork to taper its huge asset purchases, as part of steps to make its stimulus sustainable enough to weather a prolonged battle to fire up inflation.


The recent pace of the rise in yields in the U.S. Treasury market has been unsettling, according to several major bond fund managers who worry the market could be viewed as disorderly if the pace of rises continues. Economists are concerned the increased yields will continue to spur inflation.

 

Fundamental breakdown

Disney/Amazon

The NFL’s new TV rights deal for next year is worth more than $100 billion. Disney which owns ABC and ESPN; ViacomCBS, which owns CBS; Comcast, which owns NBC; as well as Fox and Amazon.com are all represented in the deal. The new deal is notable for the multitude of streaming platforms that NFL games will soon be available on: NBC’s Peacock, CBS’s Paramount+, Disney’s ESPN+, Fox’s Tubi, and Amazon Prime.

Johnson & Johnson

Johnson & Johnson will launch its newly approved drug for adults with relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS) in the United States in early April 2021 at a similar price point to rival treatments.

Tesla

The Chinese military banned Tesla cars from entering military housing complexes, citing security concerns over the cameras installed on the vehicles.
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