How to start the week: analytics and forecasts — 27.07.2020

Fundamental analysis and forecasts for the future

The past week has shown the precariousness of the “world”: investors are buying gold, relations between the United States and China are tense again, and COVID-19 continues to put pressure on the global economy.


Economic calendar

12:30 UTC

US Durable Goods Basic Orders for June will be released today. Forecast: 3.5% growth. For the American economy, a positive trend in consumer activity is very important, which, among other things, is monitored by this report. If the real ones are higher, the USD rate may rise.

Assets to trade: USD/CHF, NZD/USD or S&P 500.


Important to know

China and the United States are quarreling again. This time it came to the mutual closure of consulates in Houston and Chengdu.

The situation in the world is exacerbated by the increase of COVID-19 in Brazil, India, and the United States. A return to strict quarantine will be perceived by the market very sharply, therefore, stock assets and oil may be under attack.

In the foreign exchange market, the Swiss franc was steadily strengthening. However, the technical analysis of USD/CHF suggests that the bearish trend will stop soon.

The stock market has its winners. Tesla closed four quarters in a row with a profit for the first time in history, and AMD announced the launch of new processor models. Twitter was also in the spotlight, with paid users up 34%, while ad revenue fell 23%.


A fundamental view


There are no reasons for growth, since the OPEC + countries are planning to announce the softening of production quotas very soon. Also, global consumption is still unclear. COVID-19 is in no hurry to retreat.

Also disappointing for investors was the statistics on crude oil reserves. Instead of falling by 2 million barrels, they rose by almost 5 million.

It may be worth refraining from buying shares of oil companies Chevron and Exxon Mobil and taking the opposite position on these instruments.

ETF MSCI Brazil 2x

Brazil is breaking records for morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Jair Bolsonaro has been unable to recover since July 7, when his positive test result was first reported. Brazil will probably still have to agree with global practice and introduce strong quarantine measures, which Bolsonaro avoided.

Investors understand this and can begin to get rid of the securities of Brazilian companies, which will affect ETF quotes, which unites the largest companies in the country.


The precious metal ended the week close to historic highs. The last time gold was as expensive as it was in 2011, but in the current situation, this precious metal may renew its records. For this, the situation in the stock market must worsen.
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