Analytics

News, Trends, & Analytics 07.05.2020

Why you should not wait for the rise in oil prices

Today, the focus is on a German court disputing the ECB’s actions, BMW expects a reduction in demand, as well as the situation in the oil market.

 

News

The Constitutional Court of Germany does not agree with the actions of the ECB. Affects EUR


The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern called the country’s economy a “safe haven” for investors. Affects NZD


BMW lowers its profit forecast for 2020 amid falling demand. Affects BMW


The European Commission promises to present an EU economic recovery plan in the coming weeks. Affects EUR


The Deputy Minister of Energy of Russia Pavel Sorokin does not expect a quick recovery of the oil market but admits to a new wave of crisis. Affects Brent

 

Calendar

11:00 GMT

The minutes of the Bank of England monetary policy meeting will be published. This event could trigger an increase in GBP volatility.


12:30 GMT

There will be a report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Forecast: growth by 3 million. If the real data is lower, USD will come under pressure.


14:00 GMT

Canada’s Business Activity Index produced by Ivey will be released. Expected to be 25 points. If the amount exceeds the forecast, CAD may strengthen.

 

Technical Analysis

Brent

After a series of unpleasant shocks, the oil sector has finally managed to stabilize. Brent quotes exceeded the psychological level of 30, since May 1, the parties of the OPEC + agreement should have begun to reduce production volumes. However, Russian Deputy Minister of Energy Pavel Sorokin said the sector is unlikely to expect a quick recovery. In addition, there are risks of a second wave of crisis. The Russian official does not even rule out the beginning of an active confrontation between the United States and China.

Meanwhile, the Brent crude chart is giving a bearish signal. First, the asset has reached a downward resistance level. Secondly, MACD is showing a bearish divergence.

NTA 07.05 - EN_0

Basic dollar index

There is a high probability of a repeat of the decline scenario within the narrowing channel. The goal of the downward correction is the level of 98.50.

NTA 07.05 - EN_0

NZD/JPY

Traders can still show a reaction to the statements of the Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern, which on Wednesday emphasized the economic stability of the country. Indeed, recent data recorded an increase in employment, despite the fact that there is now an increase in the number of unemployed around the world.

The chart of the currency pair formed rising lows, which is characteristic of a trend reversal.

NTA 07.05 - EN_0

 

NZD/JPY on this day in history

  • Since 2000, May 7th has been a trading day 14 times.
  • On 43% of those days, the asset finished trading with growth.
  • The maximum strengthening range was 2.43%.
  • The downward trend was limited to 2.24%.
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