Analytics

News, Trends, & Analytics 11.07.2019

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed risks due to problems in world trade

The new Greek PM is slashing taxes, Fed Chair Powell may take action, & China is looking to stabilize trade without negotiation.

 

News

The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s board will have an emergency meeting on Wednesday, which the United States will use to raise pressure on Iran over breaches of its nuclear deal, though no concrete action is expected as parties consider their next move. Affects Brent


The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve stands ready to “act as appropriate” to sustain a decade-long expansion in the face of concerns about trade policy and a weak global economy “continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook,” increasing expectations of an interest rate cut later this month. Affects the USD


Greek think-tank IOBE predicted, Greece’s economy will continue to recover at a moderate rate of around 1.8% this year. Affects the EUR


Chinese state television reported, Beijing will stabilize trade by reducing tariffs, improving export tax rebate policies and cutting insurance fees for export companies. Affects AUD


Newly elected Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said at his first cabinet meeting on Wednesday that the Greek government will submit a bill to parliament in the coming weeks to cut taxes. Affects the EUR

 

Calendar

11:30 GMT

The ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting. This could reveal some of the ECB’s plans for the future. Affects the EUR.


12:30 GMT

The U.S. Core CPI (MoM) for June will be released. The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer, excluding food and energy. Affects the USD.


14:00 GMT

Fed Chair Powell Testifies for a second day the Q&A portion of the testimony, which can see heavy market volatility for the duration. Affects the USD.

 

Technical analysis

S&P500

Despite the fact that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke about risks during yesterday’s speech before congress, investors saw a signal for a rate cut. Against this background, the stock market resumed growth.

The index has a very strong level of resistance, so the asset’s price may go down.

Gold

There was a Double Top reversal pattern, but traders stopped selling because Powell’s speech led to a weaker US dollar. Therefore in the near future, we may witness a Triple Top pattern.

GBP/USD

If the price holds above 1.25, the pound will tend to rise. 1.25 – strong «mirror» level.

 

GBP/USD on this day in history

  • Since 2000 July 11th has been a trading day 15 times.
  • On 53% of those days, the asset ended with growth.
  • The maximum reinforcement range was 1.16%.
  • The trend down was limited to 0.93%.

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