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News, Trends, & Analytics 16.10.2019

Was there any progress in the negotiations?

Oil stopped slipping, President Trump has tried to rectify his mistake, & China-U.S. trade negotiations are far from over.

 

News

Oil prices steadied yesterday after two days of losses not helped by U.S.-China trade talks which have investors on edge, but OPEC said it hoped to balance markets beyond 2020 in a sign of possible further supply curbs. Affects Brent


U.S. President Donald Trump scrambled to limit the damage from his much-criticized decision to clear U.S. troops from Turkey’s path, on Monday, he demanded Turkey stop its military incursion in Syria and imposed new sanctions on the NATO ally. Affects TRY


Due to domestic and external factors such as trade tensions, Spain’s acting government has lowered its growth forecasts and raised its deficit estimate. Affects EUR


According to diplomats with the bloc, the European Union’s Brexit negotiator told the 27 EU states staying on together that he saw three possible scenarios ahead: a deal with Britain on Tuesday, another delay, or a “breakdown” of talks. Affects GBP


China will struggle to buy $50 billion of U.S. farm goods annually unless the United States removes retaliatory tariffs, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. Affects the S&P500

 

Calendar

08:30 GMT

The British CPI (YoY) for September will be published. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. Affects GBP.


09:00 GMT

The E.U. CPI (YoY) for September will be released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. Affects EUR.


12:30 GMT

The E.U.’s Core Retail Sales (MoM) for September will be provided. Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. Affects EUR.


14:30 GMT

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will be announced. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. Affects Brent.

 

Technical analysis

S&P500

China is ready to increase the volume of purchases of agricultural products only subject to lower import duties on the part of the United States, however, Trump has not mentioned these conditions in past statements.

The market may still respond to the news, but technical factors indicate a positive trend in the US stock market. The price is above the moving average (SMA) with a period of 20, a Double Bottom pattern has formed, and the RSI line is not in the overbought zone.

EUR/NZD

A difficult moment comes for a currency pair. Already around 1.76000-1.76100 active sales can begin.

USD/MXN

The US dollar may end the decline against the peso. This is shown by the RSI line in the oversold zone.

 

USD/MXN this day in history

  • Since 2000 October 16 has been a trading day 14 times.
  • On 64% of those days, the asset ended with growth.
  • The maximum reinforcement range was 0.73%
  • The trend down was limited to 2.95%.

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