News, Trends, & Analytics 17.11.2020

Bundesbank pessimism

Today the focus is on the vaccine from Moderna, statements by the head of the RBA, as well as forecasts of the Bundesbank.



13:30 UTC

The core US retail sales index for October will be released. The indicator is expected to grow by 0.6%. If the real data turns out to be higher, the USD will receive a positive impulse.

Assets to trade: USD/CHF, EUR/USD

14:00 UTC

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech. The voiced forecasts and expectations of the head of the regulator may cause an increase in the volatility of currency pairs with GBP.

Assets to trade GBP/CHF, GBP/USD

16:00 UTC

ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech. Such events can cause an increase in the volatility of currency pairs with EUR.

Assets to trade: EUR/CHF, EUR/USD



Moderna reported 94.5% effectiveness of the developed vaccine against COVID-19. Affects S&P 500

The Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, admitted that trade negotiations on Brexit will last 7–10 days. Affects GBP

ECB Governing Council Member Mario Centeno called for a focus on stimulating job creation. Affects EUR

The Bundesbank doubts that the German economic recovery will continue in the IV quarter of 2020. Affects EUR

The head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, believes that the introduction of negative rates is still unlikely. Affects AUD


Technical Analysis


The Bundesbank yesterday announced a negative outlook for the development of the German economy in the IV quarter of this year. According to the regulator, the positive trend in the third quarter will not continue and the economy may face a recession.

Against this background, the euro fell against the US dollar, but the technical view suggests the potential for the EUR to strengthen. At the same time, a positive trend can start from an upward support level, which is located in the area of 1.17750.


The currency pair began to reverse from the upper border of the channel. The target of the decline may become the level of 1.70750.


The chart of the currency pair has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern. The activation of bulls is possible.

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