News, Trends, & Analytics 20.07.2021

N. Ireland in the Mix

Today the focus is on German growth, slipping oil prices, and the Irish backstop.



12:30 UTC

The US Building Permit for June will be released. Forecast: 1.700M. If the results are lower than expected, the USD could receive negative pressure.

Assets to trade: USD/NOK, GBP/USD, EUR/USD



Britain will threaten this week to deviate from the Brexit deal unless the European Union shows more flexibility over Northern Ireland, one UK and three EU sources told Reuters, a move that could thrust the five-year Brexit divorce into tumult. Affects GBP

Economic growth in Germany could accelerate further this summer if there are no “significant setbacks” in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic and if supply bottlenecks ease, the country’s central bank said on Monday. Affects DAX

Bank of England interest-rate setter Jonathan Haskel said reducing stimulus was not the right option for the foreseeable future, despite rising inflation, distancing himself from two colleagues who last week said tighter policy might be needed. Affects GBP

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after OPEC+ overcame internal divisions and agreed to boost output, sparking concerns about a crude surplus as COVID-19 infections rise in many countries. Affects Brent

Asian shares slipped to a one-week low on Monday and perceived safe-haven assets, including the yen and gold, edged higher amid fears of rising inflation and a surge in coronavirus cases, while oil prices fell on oversupply worries. Affects Hang Seng


Technical Analysis


Though the British economy shows few signs of reclosing as PM Boris Johnson has continued with his reopening plan in the face of surging COVID cases, though they are causing very real hiccups across the country. Comparatively, the Eurozone is only slightly sturdier, while both economies face increased inflation and calls to end stimulus.

The pair has shown a Three White Knights pattern and is now testing its resistance zone. Prices may be slow to move through the zone.

S&P 500

This US index has shown the Three Black Crows signaling a strong downtrend, but it has run out of steam as it approached its support level around 4253


The pair broke out of its Pennant and reaffirmed its downtrend.

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