News, Trends, & Analytics 21.02.2020

Is oil’s growth exhausted?

Today, the focus is on rising unemployment in Australia, talks about a future trade deal between India and the United States, as well as a disruption in Libyan oil supplies.



Australia has increased unemployment. Affects AUD

UK retail sales exceeded forecasts: 0.9% against an expected value of 0.7%. Affects GBP

China reported a sharp decline in the rate of spread of COVID-19. Affects Brent

Indian authorities say they will not rush into a trade deal with the United States. Affects S&P 500

The market is concerned with a possible disruption of oil supplies due to the situation in Libya. Affects Brent



09:30 GMT

The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the UK will be published. If the indicator exceeds 50 points, GBP will receive a stimulus for growth.

10:00 GMT

The EU Consumer Price Index will be released. The expected valuation is 1.4%. If the actual figure is higher, EUR will receive a positive signal.

13:30 GMT

Canada’s Core Retail Sales Index will be released. Experts are expected to see a value of 0.4%. Deviation below this point will cause CAD sales.

15:00 GMT

There will be a report on sales in the US Secondary Housing Market. The forecast is 5.43 million. If the actual amount is lower, USD may drop.


Technical Analysis


Oil growth is due to the recovery of stock markets after a temporary shock due to coronavirus. But the situation in Libya is now an additional driver. Investors fear that the country will reduce oil supplies.

If we use the RSI and MACD indicators for analysis, we will see signs of a trend change. MACD has long shown a bearish divergence, but greater confidence RSI indicator should enter the overbought zone. In this case, traders will sell more actively.


The graph of the currency pair has formed a “head and shoulders” figure and has already broken the level of its foundation. The downward trend is likely to continue.


Probably USD / MXN decided to change the trend. The asset chart broke through the downward resistance level after it formed a double bottom pattern.


GBP/CAD on this day in history

  • Since 2000, Feb. 21st has been a trading day 15 times.
  • On 53% of those days, the asset finished trading with growth.
  • The maximum strengthening range was 1.00%.
  • The downward trend was limited to 0.94%.
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