Despite the lull due to US Independence Day, traders will focus on a block of American statistics that comes out this week: in particular, the PMI and ADP employment readings. OPEC + countries will decide whether to cut oil production further. The European Commission may impose sanctions on Italy. The Reserve Bank of Australia is to release the interest rate decision.
July 1. US PMI. OPEC and OPEC+ Meetings
At 14:00 GMT the market will react to the data on ISM Manufacturing PMI in June. The forecast of 51.5 is the lowest one since the fall of 2016, so traders will be ready to trade a negative scenario.
OPEC and its affiliated members will gather in Vienna on July 1-2 to discuss the current state of the industry. Investors are mostly interested in the position of key exporting countries, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, on the extension of the supply cuts agreement for another six months.
The loss of Iranian and Venezuelan oil had a positive impact on the price of black gold. This is the reason why the agreement to limit the output is likely to be extended. This will help prices stay high.
July 2. The RBA interest rate decision. Sanctions on Italy
At 04:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the interest rate decision. Investors expect a decline of 0.25 per cent. This will adversely affect the Australian dollar.
The European Commission is to launch sanction procedure against Italy over its excessive budget deficit. The authorities had earlier allowed some deviations from the EU debt rules.
However, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and his associates are confident of being able to avoid sanctions.
July 3. ADP report. Early close of US stock markets
At 12:15 GMT, the US releases the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls. Experts predict a modest growth of 150 thousand. At the same time, the latest data turned out to be record low: the number of workers increased by 27 thousand, less than the expected 180 thousand.
US stock markets close early due to Independence Day. Trading volatility will decrease after 13:00 GMT. The situation will recover only on July 5.
July 4. Retail Sales in Australia
At 01:30 GMT, Australia releases data on retail sales. Experts expect an increase of 0.2%, but the previous report recorded a drop of 0.1%.
July 5. US Unemployment
A report on US unemployment change will be published at 12:30 GMT. The current reading is at its historic low of 3.6%. This has a positive effect on the country’s stock market.